I was in Cork last week. How different the world looks when you step outside the bubble especially looking at things from an Irish perspective. The six counties border has become the touchstone of the Brexit debate; the UK government has specifically agreed that there will be no hard border either at the Irish Sea or on the mainland and to achieve this there will be regulatory convergence. The Irish are confused and they are not the only ones.
We know that our own Prime Minster is in trouble. She has been holding what has been dubbed a ‘Brexit War Cabinet’. It is only called that because the Cabinet is at war with itself over the issues. She has so many different constituent parts of her own party demanding divergent solutions that a wish list of desirable but unattainable outcomes is the only line she dare utter. It is clear that Monsieur Barnier for one will seek to bring a dose of reality to our untenable desires.
The Irish are worried. Their economy is so intertwined with that of the UK that they fear the repercussions of Brexit. Once again, their neighbour across the sea is doing things to them that they do not like. At least, this time it’s not Cromwell leaving a trail of destruction across their land. On the other hand, some may feel that the self-satisfied English elite are doing what they feel suits their deluded self-interests and damn the consequences for anyone who gets in their way. This certainly chimes with an Irish view of history.
On the other hand, Ireland is a mature and confident independent nation which is exemplified by the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, one of a new breed of Irishman of immigrant descent. He appears to me to have played his Brexit cards very well to date, pushing the Brits at the appropriate time to make their border intentions clear and then compromising to get the deal to the next stage. It is clear that he has 26 national leaders on his side. They will not let the UK get away with bullying Ireland.
Ireland also has many potential opportunities from Brexit. On the same time zone as the UK, using the same language and with a legal system based on English Law, Ireland is an ideal location for any person or organisation prejudiced by the exit from the single market. Ireland, which already benefits from investment both from Europe and the States, has its natural eye to the main chance; good luck to them I say.
The developing maturity of the Irish state is also a good model for an emerging Scottish state which will surely come within the next decade or so. The impetus for independence north of the border is very similar to that of Ireland. The Scots may judge that a couple of decades of pain are worth it for long term financial health and independence and free to re-join the EU. Good luck to them too. I have been a long term advocate for the Union, but the attitude of the Tory right wing and the Brexit majority have made me feel that now is the time for the breakup of the Union as more enlightened elements of our nation vote with their feet.
So here’s to Irish charm and long may the road rise up to meet them.